It goes without saying that we cannot predict the future. Or certainly the short-term future of stock markets. We do have confidence stock will grow over long periods and outpace inflation. But it won’t happen every year. Approximately 1 out of every 4 years has a negative (3 out of 4 have positive) return looking back at the stock market’s history.

Not knowing the future, a diversified portfolio is our best defense.

As investors we should anticipant and come to truly be at peace that market downturns happen. Last week on January 20th the market started to slip, and I started to get a couple texts and phone calls that I don’t normally get.

But does a downturn really doom an entire year?

In “Do Downturns Lead to Down Years?” Dimensional Fund Advisors takes a data-driven look at how markets have behaved after short-term declines. By separating headlines from historical evidence, the piece explores what past downturns actually tell us—and why reacting too quickly may matter more than the downturn itself.

We offer perspective with DFA’s: Do Downturns lead to Down Years